Schadensanfälligkeit und Anpassungsfähigkeit von Kiefernplantagen in den Tropen und Subtropen im Kontext des Klimawandels

Abstract

Introduction: There is large consensus in the scientific community that climate change is one of today’s most important global challenges. The survival of many valuable ecosystems is at risk and especially forested ecosystems will be struggling to keep pace with the rapid alteration of their environment. Their long generation cycles and slow migration rates make them particularly prone to be negatively affected by rapid changes. Justification: I summarize and discuss in this report three studies that examined how two important plantation species, P. patula and P. tecunumanii, may be affected by climatic changes at natural stands and locations where the species are planted. There exists an increasing need to assess and optimize the way we use available forest genetic resources in order to sustain stable growth rates in future rotations. Climate change may not only lead to reduced yields where the species are planted but may also pose a possible threat to the species’ natural populations. Hypothesis: The hypothesis tested in this research are the following: (1) Climate envelope models coupled with results from provenance trials can assist in the determination of a species’ capacity to withstand the adverse effects of climate change and (2) site quality models based on field trial data can help to maintain plantation productivity and improve our understanding of tree species’ adaptation to a changing climate when coupled with high resolution climate data. Methods: We investigated the impact of climate change on natural populations of P. patula and P. tecunumanii via climate envelope modeling and assessed the adaptive ability of the two pine species based on growth data from large provenance trials. Content: This report introduces and discusses the implications of outcomes from three studies published in a time span from 2009 to 2013. The studies were published in three different scientific journals: “Forest Ecology and Management”, “Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research”, and “Forests”. The first publication from 2009 assesses climate change impact prediction on P. patula and P. tecunumanii natural populations. The second and third publication focuses on planting sites and investigates climate related differences in growth performances on subspecies and provenance level.