Progress on Climate Adaptation: Identifying ways for enhancing the implementation and assessment of progress on climate adaptation

Abstract

The progressive consequences of climate change for human and ecological systems can be observed worldwide. To reduce the associated negative impacts and risks, numerous adaptation initiatives are being implemented. To monitor and evaluate the progress of climate action, including adaptation, the Global Stocktake (GST) was established under the Paris Agreement. The first GST in December 2023 and the latest assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made in 2023 show a considerable discrepancy between the need for adaptation on the one hand and the current adaptation strategies, the financial resources currently available as well as the status of the implementation of adaptation measures on the other. The assessments also show that a global approach to measuring progress across different regional and local contexts does not produce consistent results. As far as the implementation of the measures is concerned, the lack of financial resources is seen as the biggest hurdle. Beyond, the effectiveness of the implementation and thus the success of the measures is influenced by numerous other factors. However, for an effective measurement of adaptation success it is crucial to recognize that assessments on a global scale can only inadequately reflect progress and obstacles in the implementation of adaptation measures at local level. This is particularly true for the Global South, where information is often inadequate or not examined at all compared to the research situation in the Global North. For current adaptation research, this results in conceptual and empirical difficulties for the definition of adaptation and what can be regarded as progress or success in adaptation efforts overall. Considering the above, the main purpose of this dissertation is to identify ways to improve the implementation of adaptation measures in general and the assessment of their progress in particular. To this end, the theoretical and empirical foundations that influence monitoring and evaluation efforts as well as the effective implementation of adaptation initiatives are examined. This task translates into four research objectives: (1) to develop proposals for expanding the definition of adaptation and successful adaptation to promote their general applicability and thus their use in assessing adaptation success; (2) to identify criteria and indicators that could support efforts in compiling information on adaptation success; (3) to develop and implement an innovative approach assessing the feasibility of adaptation measures at the local level with possible further use of the results also at regional and global levels; (4) to develop an integrative framework to improve the execution of adaptation measures and to enhance the design of the assessment process: The Framework for Implementing Climate Adaptation (FICA). To achieve the above mentioned objectives, the views of experts from Latin America in relation to definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation are examined at frist. The experts were asked to assess the suitability of the same definitions for monitoring and evaluation purposes. In a second step, the IPCC approach to the design and feasibility assessment of adaptation initiatives is methodologically extended to allow for the integration of local priorities, knowledge and expertise. Here, the case study of Puerto Morazán, Nicaragua, was used for development and testing. Third, an additional methodological approach is presented to support the implementation and evaluation of climate adaptation projects. Thereby, the approach draws on findings from implementation science and uses adaptation projects of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as case studies. The projects are situated in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as well as in some African Least Developed Countries (Af-LDCs) for validation and further elaboration. The implementation of the above three steps provided the following results: The analysis of the definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation highlights the importance of understanding the numerous regional and local differences for successful climate adaptation. Understanding this shows as a prerequisite for a robust assessment of adaptation efforts across different regional and local contexts. It is also revealed that parts of the Global Goal for Adaptation can be used to potentially improve the definitions examined here. Finally, a list of criteria and indicators is proposed for use at different levels of governance. The methodological advancement of the IPCC approach to assess feasibility represents the first scientific attempt to capture conditions at the local level. It shows that approaches developed at the global level can be altered with a view to successfully integrate local circumstances and expertise - a basic prerequisite for the success of adaptation efforts. At the same time, the use of locally adapted approaches allows knowledge gained at the global level to be applied effectively at the local level. The importance of including local priorities in the assessment of possible adaptation measures is also illustrated by the research results obtain with this thesis, which shows that the assessment results vary. In the case of Puerto Morazán considered here, the assessment approach further developed in this thesis supported the identification of three possible adaptation strategies as feasible options. The Framework for Implementing Climate Adaptation (FICA) is based on approaches from implementation science. The results of the GCF adaptation projects are consistent with previous research showing that the availability of financial resources is not the only factor hindering the implementation of adaptation measures. In fact, the implementation of measures is determined by several factors, including practical aspects and the behavior of organizations. Possible criteria for assessing adaptation performance are also suggested. Finally, specific concerns regarding the operational approach of the GCF are identified, including the complexity and duration of procedures, as well as the lack of flexibility and the structuring of power at the GCF. Based on the theoretical and empirical challenges associated with the implementation of adaptation measures, this work develops methodological assessment approaches from adaptation research with the aim of further harnessing regional and local specificities from currently under-researched areas of the Global South more effectively for the design of the measures to be taken. This is achieved through the integration of local perspectives, knowledge and expertise as well as through the investigation of novel approaches to the evaluation of climate adaptation measures.