Water management analysis in the Magdalena basin in Colombia

Abstract

As a water-rich country, Colombia has experienced increasing pressure on its water systems during the last decades. The population and economic growth have led to a rise in water use, un-controlled agricultural expansion, and ecosystem pollution. The Magdalena river basin, the most populated and developed region of Colombia, will be threatened by future water shortages without optimal water management strategies. Against this trend, water-economic modeling research enables new insights to cope with the future difficulties in the Magdalena watershed. This thesis presents a research on how climate change and socio-economic development could influence water management investment and their welfare in the Magdalena region in Colombia. For this purpose, a forward-looking modeling with welfare maximization is applied to the studied area to compare optimal infrastructure investments for various scenarios. This dissertation’s primary tool is the CAMARI model to investigate optimal infrastructure investment in the Magdalena region. CAMARI model is a water management, capacity expansion, and optimization model, which maximizes water consumption’s net benefits given socio-economic and water availability projections. Two simulation studies and one paper address this modeling tool’s implementation in a developing country’s tropical river basin, which research deficit on river management.