Navigating Climate Change Uncertainty: Adaptive Governance of European Fisheries – a German Case Study

Abstract

Undeniably, European fisheries are greatly affected by climate change, with impacts extending beyond rising temperatures. However, climate change affects not only European fishing activities but also the institutional structures and processes that govern them. It is drastically increasing the speed at which marine social-ecological systems are changing and, consequently, calls into question the foundations of their governance. To date, the impact of climate change on European fisheries governance has received limited attention. This dissertation analyzes and discusses the institutional impacts of climate change uncertainty on European fisheries governance, using brown shrimp fisheries as a case study of non-managed species in Europe. The interdisciplinary, mixed-methods research approach integrates qualitative social science analyses with quantitative natural science research on discard shrimp mortality. In doing so, the dissertation aims to bridge disciplinary gaps and foster a comprehensive understanding of Europe’s marine social-ecological systems. Central to this approach is the integration of competing knowledge systems – scientific and practical – through semi-structured interviews and roundtable discussions with actors involved in fisheries. Using brown shrimp as a boundary object, the approach creates an integrated research paradigm and enables communication across knowledge systems and disciplines. The analyses presented in this dissertation, and the adaptive pathways that are developed, are primarily informed by Adaptive Governance Theory. The research rationale follows a stepwise analytical logic, systematically exploring data through iterative stages and adopting a phased approach comprising theoretical, descriptive-analytical and inferential components. Following this line of thinking, the theoretical perspective informs the descriptive and inferential analyses by identifying variables of importance and the processes that connect them. The theoretical analysis examines the extent to which adaptive governance could facilitate climate change adaptability in EU fisheries governance, while the empirical analysis investigates constraints within the EU fisheries governance structure under climate change uncertainty – focusing on the self-management of the German brown shrimp fishery. The theoretical and the empirical analyses inform plausible European fisheries governance and German brown shrimp fishery adaptation options. The findings indicate that a nested, polycentric governance architecture is foundational to sustainable self-management in European fisheries.